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Spreadsheet scenarios show parking incentive duration could shrink if downtown values rise
Summary
Developer and consultant demoed models showing the parking incentive's payback window is highly sensitive to property-value growth and parking-rate assumptions — a 3% annual value increase could cut a 22–24 year projection to about 14 years; an 8% scenario could shorten the TIF stop date to 2035.
Board members asked how long the parking incentive would remain in effect under different property-value or parking-rate scenarios. A consultant demonstrated spreadsheet models showing substantial sensitivity: under staff's conservative flat-value modeling the parking incentive could run 22–24 years, but with modest annual property-value growth the duration shortens significantly.
"If property values go up 3%, that reduces the parking incentive down to 14 years," consultant Jimmy Gooney told the board while walking through a shared spreadsheet. He demonstrated an 8% annual growth scenario that would bring TIF and parking-incentive receipts to an end by 2035 in the model; staff said the example (Exhibit B in the redevelopment agreement) shows an alternative scenario where the TIF is recovered earlier.
Staff acknowledged the modeling in the packet used conservative, flat assumptions for a worst-case presentation and said the city can provide growth-based scenarios if members want a shorter-duration projection. The board asked staff to provide additional sensitivity modeling to clarify the real-world likelihood that the incentive payback would occur sooner than the conservative estimate.
