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Demographer warns Sunol Glen enrollment likely to shrink as kindergarten cohorts fall
Summary
King, Inc.'s director of demographics told trustees the district faces a likely multi‑year decline driven by smaller incoming kindergarten cohorts and fewer out‑of‑district enrollments; local resident births were described as stable but small (roughly five kindergarten‑age births in some years).
Rob Murray of King, Inc., presented a demographic analysis showing the district is likely to experience continued enrollment declines over the next several years unless recruitment of small cohort gains offsets broader regional trends.
Murray explained that local resident births have been low for years and that much of the district's prior enrollment gains came from families outside the district; "we are looking at the likelihood of decreasing enrollment," he said. He showed cohort‑replacement charts and spatial maps indicating that while resident students are relatively stable, the out‑of‑district feeder populations that previously bolstered enrollment have decreased markedly. Trustees discussed using bond‑funded improvements and targeted outreach to try to attract new families and noted the demographic trends should shape long‑term planning.
