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Staff outlines National Hurricane Center product changes, new forecasting tools
Summary
Staff presented planned National Hurricane Center product changes — including revised cone graphics and an experimental ellipse — described model differences and new AI forecasts, and urged residents to watch updated inland watches and warnings.
Staff gave a detailed briefing on recent and planned forecasting changes from the National Hurricane Center and other forecasting partners, describing both visual updates and model shifts.
The presiding speaker (Agency official) said the center will change cone graphics to reflect a 90% cross-track and an elongated track, add a gray "x" marker for disturbances with no chance of development, and experiment with an ellipse-based cone to reduce projection error. "They're gonna put a gray x now," the Agency official said, explaining the marker will track systems that currently show no expected development. The speaker also said the center is working toward more mobile-friendly products.
Why it matters: sharper graphics and new markers are meant to make forecast uncertainty clearer for residents and responders. The presenter emphasized that different forecast models perform better for different tasks — "GFS and the ECMWF are good for track... HAF...are good for intensity" — and that model accuracy can vary year to year. The speaker also referenced new AI forecasting work (named in the transcript as "Melissa") that will be part of the forecasting mix.
The presentation stressed that residents should follow National Weather Service guidance rather than informal model outputs. "I listen to the National the National Weather Service," the Agency official said. Staff said the county will integrate the updated products into local communications and encouraged subscription to alert services.
Looking ahead: staff indicated inland watches and warnings will be added to some products to improve inland response and said local emergency operations will fold the new visuals into community outreach and preparedness efforts.
