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Consultant projects relatively flat district enrollment over 10 years; K5 expected to dip
Summary
Flow Analytics presented a 10-year enrollment forecast with low/middle/high scenarios that center on a middle-case district headcount near 3,683; lower births and kindergarten yields are expected to reduce K5 enrollment even if in-migration offsets some losses.
Flow Analytics presented a 10-year enrollment forecast to the Silver Falls School District board, modeling three scenarios (low/middle/high) and explaining the firm's methods combining cohort-component analysis, birth data and grade progression ratios. "See, these are 10 year enrollment forecasts," consultant Alex Brosh said, explaining the middle scenario the district will use for short-term planning.
Brosh noted key drivers: a decline in births in recent years, a COVID-related dip in the 20202021 kindergarten cohorts that later partially rebounded, and a nontrivial amount of out-of-district students enrolling in Silver Falls. "You have a total of 449 students that live outside the district boundary that enroll with the district," he said, adding that out-of-district enrollment is about 12% of total enrollment and an important component in forecasts.
Under the middle scenario, the district's October 2024 headcount (3,683) remains roughly flat across the forecast, but Brosh said K5 cohorts will likely shrink as lower births move through: "even if you keep your ratio to births roughly the same above 1 in our forecast, 1.01 to 1.04, you're still gonna have kindergarten classes that are a little bit smaller than you're used to." He recommended the board and staff track October 2025 counts against the forecast and maintain residence-level tracking to better monitor in- and out-migration.
