Intern’s pension simulation shows majority chance of full funding by 2036 — but nontrivial downside risk

Aditya Sharma presented a quantitative analysis of the Middlesex County Retirement System, focusing on Acton's 3.37% share of the system’s unfunded liability (about $54.8 million of the total unfunded amount reported). Using heat maps and a 10,000‑run Monte Carlo simulation, Sharma reported a roughly 70% probability of full funding for the system by 2036 under his base assumptions but also highlighted a 7.6% chance of a severe downside outcome in which the funded ratio could fall below 60%.

Sharma recommended the town continue to grow free cash reserves to buffer potential shocks and to revisit assumptions when the next actuarial valuation is published. Committee members asked detailed questions about modeled return distributions, the simulation's historical window (2016–2025), and tradeoffs between pension funding and OPEB funding; Sharma said his model centers expected annual returns near the 10‑year historical average and includes a wide range of simulated outcomes.

"Effectively, across all 10,000 simulations, there was roughly a 70% probability of full funding by 2036," Sharma said, adding that the 5th‑percentile case had a funded ratio of about 54.7%. The committee praised the rigor and asked Sharma to return with updated results after the next Segal/Seagull actuarial valuation is released.