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District projects continued growth but flags 2024 slowdown in housing starts
Summary
Royse City ISD's demographer reported a dip in 2024 housing starts and closings, but the district still expects long‑term student growth; a low‑growth scenario would reduce next year’s anticipated additions from ~800–1,000 to roughly 530–600.
District analysts presented enrollment forecasts from Zonda Education showing continued long-term growth but a measurable dip in the fourth quarter of 2024. The presenter said starts dropped below 200 and closings dipped to 164 in 2024, and described a "low growth" scenario that would reduce projected incoming students for 2025–26.
The workshop noted current inventory and development capacity — roughly 500 finished homes in inventory with about 2,800 additional lots available — and projected roll‑forward enrollment benchmarks: roughly 15,000 students by 2029 under steady growth and about 20,750 by 2034 in a stronger scenario. Administrators said they will budget conservatively for 2025–26 using a lower growth estimate but continue to monitor builder activity and interest rates before adjusting plans.
