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Domestic migration fueled recent population boom; younger arrivals could ease workforce pressure
Summary
Dr. Kessler told senators Tennessee's recent population surge—about 97,000 new residents in 2022 and strong inflows in 2023'024—was driven mainly by domestic migration, with roughly 40% of recent movers in prime working age (25—34). He cautioned that long-term demographic aging will still constrain labor supply.
The Boyd Center told the committee that Tennessee's recent population increases have been driven primarily by people moving in from other U.S. states, especially Texas, Florida, Georgia and California.
Kessler said the state experienced a particularly large inflow in 2022: "a massive increase in 2022 where we had almost 97,000 new residents move into the state." He added about 40% of new residents in the most recent year were in the prime working-age group (25 to 54), with the largest cohort 25 to 39.
That pattern, Kessler said, supports stronger job growth in Tennessee relative to the national average, but he warned the state still faces longer-term headwinds from an aging population and expected labor-supply constraints. Members asked whether policy or tax differences in other states could be driving migration; Kessler said migration is difficult to attribute to single policies but noted some marginal effects may occur.
