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Tassar analyst outlines modest growth, flags 25% U.S. recession risk and Tennessee hotspots
Summary
Michael Mount of the Tassar team told the Senate Finance, Ways and Means Committee that national forecasts show modest GDP growth and a roughly 25% chance of recession in the next 12 months, and that Tennessee's outlook varies across metropolitan areas with projects like Blue Oval City affecting regional labor markets.
Michael Mount of the Tassar research team opened the committee's economic briefing with a national and state snapshot, saying forecasters now expect growth slightly north of 2% over the next 12 months. "My name is Michael Mount, and I'll be presenting a brief, overview of the economy," he said as he described national indicators and Tennessee-specific trends.
Mount noted that while headline measures look stable, some Federal Reserve governors see fragility beneath the surface: "In the 1st quote, you can see that, it's, that looks good. But then, Michelle Bowman says that, beneath the surface, the labor markets become fragile," he said, and he flagged a roughly 25% probability of recession over the next year based on a Wall Street Journal economist survey. Members asked for a deeper breakdown of metro-area unemployment and for analysis of major developments such as Blue Oval City; Mount said the team would follow up with more detailed regional data.
The committee's discussion focused on how national capital-intensive investments, including data centers and manufacturing projects, affect Tennessee's labor demand and supply chains. Cliff Lippert, who introduced the team, said the update has been maintained online for years and that the unit produces weekly analyses the committee finds helpful.
