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Dr. Thompson: District forecast shows multi-year deficits, levy modeling could buy time
Summary
Dr. Thompson told the Finance Personnel Committee that the February forecast shows persistent "deficit spending" through the next decade unless the district adopts further reductions or passes a levy; he said reductions already cut the FY2027 shortfall and that a November levy could improve near-term finances.
Dr. Thompson told the committee the district is currently "in deficit spending," and that the February 2026 forecast shows multi-year pressures that could grow into multi-million-dollar shortfalls without additional action. He said the prior forecast showed a nearly $4.5 million shortfall in fiscal year 2029, and that recent reductions reduced a FY2027 deficit projection from $5.4 million to $3.3 million.
Dr. Thompson walked members through modeling that includes the potential effect of a levy in November and noted the district's cash reserves under different scenarios. He said the same forecast now shows a projection that could be a $1.8 million positive in 2029 under the updated model, but warned that longer-term projections show risks including a $9.9 million deficit (which he said "would be state receivership") and a $24 million shortfall by 2031 if no corrective measures are sustained. He said he will "itemize those reductions on Thursday" with line-item dollar amounts and that some estimated healthcare savings ($800,000–$1.2 million) are not yet included in the forecast and could improve results when incorporated.
The presentation flagged legislative and county policy dependencies: Dr. Thompson noted impacts from recent state-level changes (referred to in the packet as House bill 9 20) and a separate county commissioners action that shifted roughly $600,000 back into the budget in the short term. He emphasized the forecast is a projection that can be altered by policy choices, reductions, and potential revenue measures.
Next steps: Dr. Thompson will present detailed reduction line items and the levy modeling at Thursday's board meeting and will update the forecast again as confirmed savings (including healthcare changes) are realized.
