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Group 1 finds 12‑unit pilot struggles to hit low price points without donated land or scale
Summary
A breakout group that reverse‑engineered parcel and vertical‑cost assumptions reported that a 12‑unit cottage court will likely land near $440k–$480k per home under current assumptions; donors, fee relief or larger scale (60+ units) were flagged as ways to drive price down.
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Group 1 reported the results of a reverse‑engineering exercise: they estimated a reasonable parcel for a 12‑unit cluster at roughly 1–1.25 acres and used cost assumptions that led to unit sale prices above the target workforce range. The group summarized its assumptions: lot cost approximated at $70,000 per unit (on their modeling), site prep and infrastructure roughly $70,000 per unit, and vertical construction assumed at about $3.75 per square foot. Using those inputs, an 800‑sq ft unit produced a vertical cost in the neighborhood of $300,000 and a stacked all‑in price that approached the $440k–$480k range discussed earlier.
Group members said the model can move if the city donates land, if developers can achieve economies of scale (60+ units) or if off‑site modular costs fall substantially. "The only things that we could see that move the needle are the donation of land... and then maybe we get some freedom in parking or density..." the report said.
Why it matters: the group’s numbers show that without subsidy, donated land or a much larger project scale, a 12‑unit detached cottage court may not reach the price points needed for many workforce buyers. The commission asked staff to fold these assumptions into the financing group’s analysis and to explore fee/incentive changes that might improve feasibility.
