Consultant says redevelopment of former News-Press site could yield long-term gains but creates near-term costs

David Farmer, CEO of Metro Forecasting Models, told the Fort Myers Community Redevelopment Agency on April 23 that a phased mixed-use redevelopment of the former News-Press site could be assessed at about $181,000,000 and generate, in his model, roughly $1.7 million in incremental revenues for the incremental revenue trust fund.

Farmer told commissioners that his conservative assumptions—interviews with the Lee County property appraiser and cautious lease-up estimates—produce a model where ad valorem and non-ad valorem revenues together approach $1.7 million, but operating- and service-related costs could temporarily outstrip those revenues. "So the net impact is a negative 677,000," Farmer said, adding that "once the trust fund sunsets in 2044, then the net fiscal impact is likely to be $400,000 in today's dollars." He emphasized his firm’s conservative approach and said the assessment and lease assumptions had been vetted with local brokers and CoStar data.

Commissioners pressed on the sensitivity of the forecast. Board members asked whether the model accounted for potential state changes in property-tax treatment and for spillover effects into nearby neighborhoods such as Dunbar and McCollum Hall. Farmer said the analysis did not model a hypothetical statewide property-tax waiver and warned that a loss of ad valorem revenue would materially change the outcomes; he did say the development could create jobs and commercial activity that may spur neighborhood investment but cautioned that a grocery anchor is unlikely to be supported by the proposed 582 residential units alone.

The presentation outlined key project assumptions: a multi-phase schedule (residential, office, retail, hotel), an 18-month absorption timeframe for housing components, tenant-improvement concessions the developer offered to incentivize leasing, and bond-rate assumptions (a 5% benchmark in his sample scenarios). Farmer also quantified potential city exposure if the city dedicated 85–90% of trust-fund net revenues to a community development district (CDD) as a developer incentive, estimating a possible city contingent exposure in the low millions depending on lease-up speed.

The board did not take formal action on the Metro memo itself but used the presentation to frame later rebate and guideline discussions. The consultant's full spreadsheets and assumptions were included in the meeting packet.

The report is available in the CRA packet; staff said they can provide the detailed model to commissioners on request.