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Demographer: district enrollment forecast projects ~15% decline over seven years
Summary
David Kates of MGT told the board the district should expect continued decline in high‑school enrollment driven by smaller birth cohorts and lower housing yields; his seven‑year forecast projects roughly a 15% drop.
David Kates of MGT presented the demography and methodology the firm used to forecast enrollment for Escondido Union High School District: GIS mapping of student residence data, averaging recent October enrollment counts, mobility factors, and housing‑development yield assumptions. He said the firm validates forecasts with recent October student files and adjusts for new development and local capture rates.
Kates summarized the outlook: “It's gonna work out to be about 15% more over the next 7 years,” he said, explaining that smaller kindergarten birth cohorts entering the feeder elementary districts and lower yield rates from multifamily development are the primary drivers. Kates also reported the capture rate for high‑school grades is in the low‑ to mid‑60s and noted the firm's forecasts are typically within about 1–2% of actual counts when validated against October enrollment files.
