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Demographer warns Royce City enrollment growth has slowed; first time in district history leavers outpaced newcomers
Summary
Zonda Demographics said housing closings and lower yields have left the district with more students leaving than arriving for the first time in Royce City history, producing the lowest cohort growth in 15 years and prompting more conservative enrollment forecasts used to evaluate high-school phasing.
Rocky of Zonda Demographics presented enrollment and housing data through the end of the third quarter and said the district is seeing a slowdown in closings and lower student yields from new homes. He noted a spike in "leavers" (students who were in the district last year but are not this year) and said, "For the 1st time in Royce City history, you had 1 more leaver than, than you had newcomers," signaling a shift in the district's short-term enrollment outlook.
Rocky said the elementary cohort only grew 1.6% this year — the lowest elementary growth in a decade — and that kindergarten class sizes and homeschooling/virtual enrollment trends were contributing factors. He presented high/low scenarios showing a mid projection of about 12,000 students in five years but warned that the district's previous forecasts for much larger enrollment increases are now less likely without a housing- and yield-driven bounce-back.
Board members asked whether hybrid-work reversals or delayed commercial development explained the decline; Rocky said the firm bases forecasts on housing, yields and cohort history and had not specifically modeled remote-work migration. The demographic update framed the board's discussion about phasing and timing for the new high school by reducing the district's near-term enrollment expectations.
