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Scientists warn Super El Niño could reshape fisheries, boost domoic acid and stress marine mammals
Summary
CDFW and ocean scientists told lawmakers that a strong El Niño layered on ongoing marine heat waves could suppress upwelling, shift prey, worsen domoic acid risks and increase strandings and nutritional stress in marine mammals, urging investment in monitoring buoys, LIDAR and plankton sensors.
Three ocean and marine mammal scientists told the committee that conditions this year resemble the 2014–16 Pacific warm anomaly and a strong El Niño could compound ecosystem stress. Dr. Julia Coates (CDFW) and Dr. Anderson (Scripps) explained that El Niño weakens upwelling and redistributes warm water and prey, producing complex, species‑specific responses: some short‑lived and migratory species may increase locally, while long‑lived species could show reduced juvenile survival.
Dr. Anderson warned that coastal monitoring capacity has gaps, noting federal disinvestment in some buoy and surveying programs and urging state investment to backfill observational networks, especially along the North Coast. The Marine Mammal Center's representative described nutritional stress, increased strandings and the risk of exposure to domoic acid, which can cause seizures and brain damage. Panelists recommended expanded plankton monitoring, satellite and drone detection for whales, glider and shore‑station systems to detect ocean anomalies and better integration of data into management.
