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Enrollment down from 2019 peak; district projects further elementary declines through 2028
Summary
District demographer reported a loss of roughly 1,000 students from Oct. 2019 to Sept. 2022, a 300‑student rebound from 2022–24 driven by TK expansion, and a 92‑student decline year‑over‑year from Sept. 2024 to Sept. 2025. The report projects continued elementary declines through 2028 and a later impact on middle schools.
District demographer Nishihara presented the enrollment and five‑year projections, describing long‑term demographic shifts and programmatic responses.
Nishihara said the district peaked near 6,439 students in 2019 and then lost about 1,000 students by September 2022, attributing the earlier declines partly to lower birth rates and Rising local cost of living. "From October 2019 to September 2022, our overall enrollment declined 1000 students," he noted. He also said the district saw an increase of about 300 students from 2022 to 2024, largely because of the expansion of transitional kindergarten (TK).
For September 2024 to September 2025 Nishihara reported a decline of 92 students districtwide and forecasted a projected elementary decline of about 193 students through 2028; he warned that middle school enrollment impacts would likely lag and appear around 2029 as smaller cohorts progress. The presentation included a breakdown by attendance area and noted that San Miguel may buck district trends due to local development.
Trustees asked about how projections inform staffing and open‑enrollment decisions; staff said registration will open Feb. 1 and that sites will conduct intent‑to‑return checks and lotteries in March–April. The board was told staff will continue to monitor birth rates, local housing development and program choices that affect attendance.
