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NNWPC recommends WRWC find 2026–2046 consensus forecast supportable by identified water resources
Summary
Commissioners recommended the Western Regional Water Commission accept the Truckee Meadows 2026–2046 consensus population forecast, finding that projected demand (about 111,600 acre-feet) is supported by the plan's listed water resources (baseline ~192,988 acre-feet; conservative baseline 143,800 acre-feet without imports).
The Northern Nevada Water Planning Commission voted Aug. 5 to recommend that the Western Regional Water Commission determine the draft 2026–2046 consensus population forecast can be supported by the regional water management plan's identified sustainable water resources.
Jeremy Smith, director of regional planning for the Truckee Meadows Regional Planning Agency, explained the consensus approach — averaging four independent forecasts. He said, "In 2025, July 1, there was 519,471 people in Washoe County," and reported the consensus projection to about 595,292 residents by 2046. Smith outlined how the forecast informs parcel-level spatial disaggregation used in demand modeling.
Kim Rigdon presented staff's water-demand analysis and reported a projected annual demand of about 111,600 acre-feet for the consensus population. She summarized the plan's water resources baseline as 192,988 acre-feet (including importation projects) and a conservative baseline of 143,800 acre-feet without future importation projects, concluding the available resources would remain above the projected demand. "We're looking for a recommendation, that the WRWC accept this analysis and, determine that the regional water plan water resources can support the consensus forecast population, that Jeremy has presented today," Rigdon said.
Commissioner John Flansberg moved to forward the consensus forecast and staff analysis to the WRWC with a recommendation of support; the motion was seconded and carried by voice vote. Commissioners discussed differences between the state demographer's lower projection and the consensus result before voting.
