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Consultants tell Santa Ynez Valley Union High board November bond is winnable but close to 55% threshold
Summary
Consultants presenting polling and finance models told the Santa Ynez Valley Union High School District board that a November bond could be viable but support sits near the 55% passage threshold; they recommended lower tax framing, prioritizing CTE/STEM/portable replacements, and rapid communications work if the board directs a resolution by mid‑June.
Consultants from TeamCivics and 2 North Research told the Santa Ynez Valley Union High School District board on June 9 that a proposed bond measure could reach the 55% threshold required under California law, but the margin is narrow and campaign work would be critical.
"We found in your community that the number one issue was maintaining the quality of education; 94% of the likely voters told us that was extremely or very important," Tim McClarny of 2 North Research said in a presentation of the firm’s statistically reliable survey. The polling tested a representative sample of likely November voters and returned an initial ballot test at about 55% support for a roughly $79 million measure framed at $29 per $100,000 assessed value. When opposition messages were introduced, support dropped to the mid‑50s.
The consultants emphasized that how the tax impact is presented matters. McClarny said converting the rate to a dollar figure for a median home increased support: "At the $29 per 100,000 assessed valuation rate we have 47% support; the moment you convert that to $222 per year, support bounces up to 51%." He added that listing priority projects—career and technical education (CTE) like welding and automotive, STEM, and basic repairs to aging facilities and portables—boosted support in follow‑up tests.
Financial adviser Mark Farrell of Dale Scott & Company presented modeled tax rates under several issuance schedules. He said a $70–80 million authorization could be structured with three to four series of bonds to lower the average tax rate; for example, a $70 million authorization spread over four issuances yielded an average tax rate modeled near $19 per $100,000 assessed valuation in the consultants’ examples.
The consultants recommended that the board, if it wants a November 2026 ballot measure, act quickly: Santa Barbara County’s deadline to receive a board‑adopted resolution was June 25. Charles Heath of TeamCivics said the next step—if the board gives direction—would be to return June 16 with a draft resolution, tax‑rate statement and project list for adoption, then shift to an independent advocacy campaign for voter outreach.
Board members pressed consultants on sampling methods, homeowner vs. renter responses and the potential impact of competing measures. The consultants said their sample included homeowners and renters and used voter‑file based likely‑voter selection to improve accuracy. Public commenter Denise El Amin told the board she was concerned about public outreach and timing, saying voters might not be adequately informed if action proceeds during the summer.
If the board authorizes a measure, the consultants recommended prioritizing messaging around CTE and STEM investments, keeping the tax impact framed as affordably as possible, and immediately beginning a coordinated communications program and independent volunteer campaign to shore up support.
