Finance director: preliminary 2021 revenues up about $11.2 million (3.2%), but figures remain conditional

Carl, the city’s finance director, presented the council with a first‑draft revenue forecast for fiscal 2021 and stressed it is preliminary and contingent on state and federal decisions. “Today, I will be providing you with a briefing on the preliminary revenue projections for 2021,” he said as he opened the presentation.

Carl laid out the topline: recurring revenues are projected at $357,500,000 — roughly $11.2 million more than the 2020 budget, a 3.2% increase — and he said about $8.8 million of that growth would be available for general appropriation after $2.4 million in commitments (including the school funding formula, EDA developer incentives and convention center allocations). He cautioned the General Assembly remains in session and the Commissioner of Revenue’s personal property roll — due in mid‑March — could change the outlook.

The presentation broke the gains down by source. Real‑estate‑based general property taxes were highlighted as the largest driver, with taxable assessments projected to rise roughly 4.19% on a weighted basis and translating to several million dollars in added receipts. Carl also cited increases in meals and sales tax (including a Wayfair‑driven boost to remote sales collections) and stronger business license receipts as contributors to the local tax gains.

Council members asked how much of the uptick could be attributed to tourism and new hotel capacity; Carl recommended hiring an outside economist or using an analytic model to isolate direct and indirect tourism impacts. City manager-level staff reminded the council that expense pressures (pension/VRS rate changes, potential minimum‑wage increases and other unfunded mandates) will eat into any available new growth and that the number should guide priorities rather than dictate them.