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Board reviews conservative 20‑year financial model and 1.5% baseline growth
Summary
Staff emphasized a conservative financial model for TIF No. 2 using a 1.5% baseline annual taxable‑value growth rate and presented 20‑year projections, including a projected taxable base of $417.2 million in 2027 and $643.7 million in 2045.
Staff member (S1) told the board the TIF financial model uses a conservative 1.5% baseline growth rate that excludes speculative new construction until projects are on the ground. “We're very conservative in our financial models,” the staff member said, explaining the approach aims to avoid placing the city or board in positions that rely on uncertain revenue assumptions.
Using the baseline, staff cited a preliminary total projected taxable value of $417,200,000 in 2027 and $643,700,000 by 2045, with annual revenues rising from about $2,880,000 in 2027 to roughly $4,400,000 in 2045 under the model. Staff acknowledged recent years have produced stronger growth in practice but said the model keeps estimates conservative until redevelopment is confirmed.
