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Demographer: LCISD growth to continue but at moderated annual rate; housing pipeline remains large
Summary
Zonda Demographics told the board the district has more than 61,000 future home sites in its footprint and expects annual enrollment growth averaging 2.5%–3.9% over the next decade, prompting seat‑planning and phased construction tied to actual student arrivals.
Dr. Maxwell of Zonda Demographics presented housing and enrollment data showing a substantial future development pipeline inside the district footprint and long-term student-growth projections. He said the district currently has more than 61,000 planned future home sites and noted current activity includes active subdivisions, thousands of lots under development, and nine multifamily projects under construction comprising about 2,880 units. "This shows that our growth should continue well into the future," he said.
For planning purposes, Zonda presented ranges for future enrollment and recommended scenarios (low/mid/high); Dr. Maxwell said the district is projected to add an average of approximately 1,600–1,900 students per year in standard scenarios and projected overall annual growth between about 2.5% and 3.9% over the next 10 years. Trustees asked what would happen to bond and construction plans if growth slowed; CFO Greg Buchanan replied that bonds are not sold and buildings are not built until student demand materializes, meaning the district intends to phase capital activity to match enrollment.
