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District and consultant present capacity and demographic models for Concept 9
Summary
TeamWorks and district modeling shows facility-utilization and enrollment projections under Concept 9, with several schools projected at or above 100% utilization in mid-term scenarios; administrators cited modeling assumptions and two projection scenarios.
The administration packet prepared by TeamWorks includes detailed modeling and assumptions underlying Concept 9. Presenters explained two projection scenarios: a baseline using birth rates and cohort survival and a "New Development Gains" scenario that adds student yield from projected housing build-out. The packets display current enrollments, projected enrollments, facility-utilization percentages, and socioeconomic breakdowns by school.
Selected figures in the slides: Concept 9 modeling lists elementary and middle school enrollment and utilization by school; the packet shows Central Middle with a projected facility utilization of 102.3% in one scenario and West Middle projection at 113.1% in a scenario noted for SY 2029/2030. Administration also explained assumptions used for projections (3-5 year planning horizon, full build-out assumptions for known developments, cohort survival methodology). The presentation notes that district staff plan to consider remodeling options to address underutilized space at Central Middle and West Middle in multi-year planning.
