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Forecast council records concurrence with baseline August 2026 revenue forecast
Summary
The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council accepted staff's recommendation to adopt the baseline August 2026 economic and revenue forecast by unanimous no-objection; the forecast will underlie the mayor's upcoming proposed budget and shows modest net revenue gains largely from sales-tax changes.
The Economic and Revenue Forecast Council formally recorded its concurrence with the Office of Economic and Revenue Forecasts' recommended baseline August 2026 forecast after staff presented updated economic inputs and revenue projections. Chair Dan Strauss asked if there were objections to adopting the recommendation; "Hearing no objections, direct the forecast office to record our concurrence with the recommended forecast in the meeting minutes," Strauss said and the council did so by consensus.
Jan Duras, interim director and chief economist at the forecast office, told the council that the office developed three scenarios (baseline, pessimistic and optimistic) and recommended the baseline because there was not a compelling case that the region was entering a recession. "The baseline scenario is the recommendation," Duras said, while noting elevated uncertainty from global events and recent legislative changes that affect tax bases. The staff presentation showed an aggregate upward revision of roughly $116 million across general and non-general funds over three years, driven primarily by sales-tax changes that added about $24.5 million to 2026 general-fund projections.
The council clarified that no formal roll-call vote was required under the ordinance that created the forecast office; recording concurrence in the minutes suffices to indicate the council's position. Chair Strauss said the forecast will be used as the basis for the mayor's proposed biennial budget and reminded members the forecast council will receive a final revenue update on Oct. 16.
