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KCAG, consultant outline four scenarios to guide Kings County transportation, report modest VMT gains from land‑use shifts
Summary
KCAG staff and consultant DKS described four scenarios for the regional transportation plan and sustainable community strategy, saying land‑use shifts alone yield modest vehicle‑miles‑traveled (VMT) reductions while investments in broadband, active transportation and EV infrastructure produce larger greenhouse‑gas benefits in the model.
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Kings County Association of Governments regional planner Kaylee Clay and consultant Jim Damkowicz of DKS Associates presented an update to the county's regional transportation plan and sustainable community strategy on Aug. 4, describing four candidate scenarios the KCAG board will consider.
Damkowicz said the four options range from Scenario A (a current‑trend, bottom‑up plan that reflects existing local agency inputs) through Scenario C (an aggressive VMT‑efficient land‑use approach tied to SB 747) and Scenario D (which layers additional investments in EV charging, broadband and active transportation on the baseline land‑use plan). “We do see about a 13,000 per day reduction in VMT relative to scenario A” under the aggressive land‑use scenario in the model, Damkowicz said.
The consultant cautioned that land‑use strategies affect only new development, so the net benefit is limited; programmatic measures such as telecommuting, transit, bike/ped improvements and employer trip‑reduction programs tend to reduce VMT for both existing and new development. Damkowicz told the council that, in the county model, Scenario D produced the largest GHG reductions when combined with those programs. He added that all candidate scenarios met the state Air Resources Board targets included in the conformity analysis.
Council members pressed staff on what selection of a preferred scenario would mean in practice. KCAG and DKS staff said choosing a scenario creates a 25‑year roadmap and signals regional priorities for pursuing grants and allocating local funds, but it does not itself create or guarantee funding. The staff also noted that federal and state agencies — including FHWA and CARB — must ultimately approve parts of the plan and the SCS respectively before projects can proceed.
