County trustee warns FY26 revenue forecast is optimistic; finance defends methodology

Michael Thompson, deputy CFO, presented trustee reports and revenue projections used in the proposed FY26 operating budget, showing several recent fiscal years where collections exceeded forecasts and arguing collection trends support the budget's revenue assumptions.

Regina Newman, Shelby County trustee, disputed that approach, saying the office's forecasts have been raised in response to higher collections and warning a 98% collection rate for realty and personalty "is a fantasy." Newman said relying on an inflated projection could leave the county about $9.5 million short and emphasized that accrual practices do not create an extra month of revenue in practical cash terms.

Director of Administration and Finance Audrey Tipton responded that the administration records trustee forecasts and uses accrual accounting (including July collections attributable to June) to budget prudently. Commissioners asked for additional one‑on‑one briefings with finance and the trustee, and the committee deferred items 4–7 to subcommittee for further review before final FY26 votes.