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Staff presents undeveloped-land analysis showing capacity for thousands of multifamily units
Summary
Staff presented an undeveloped-land analysis using the National Land Cover Dataset and GIS methods, reporting roughly 20,000 acres potentially developable for residential uses and citing a current regional multifamily vacancy rate around 16.5%. Commissioners discussed market balance and the city's limited ability to control the mix of development by right.
Planning staff presented an undeveloped-land analysis used for the updated housing memo and explained the methodology: staff reclassified NLCD satellite-derived 30-meter raster data into developed/undeveloped points, averaged those points per parcel, and flagged parcels with >50% undeveloped points as undeveloped for the citywide tally.
Hailey and other staff described the limitations and cautioned the commission against over-interpreting the maximum theoretical capacity. Staff reported roughly 20,000 acres across the city that could support some residential development outside the floodplain and said that, in a maximum-theoretical scenario using a 20-units-per-acre assumption on roughly 330 acres of MR/MN land, the city could see up to about 6,600 multifamily units. Hailey also said the regional vacancy rate reported from CoStar is "around 16 and 0.5 percent," and staff noted about 4,000 units were under construction and approximately 8,000 units in various stages of review in their dataset.
Commissioners raised questions about vacancy health thresholds and the balance between adding rooftops for revenue and ensuring the city's infrastructure and employment base align with housing growth. Staff recommended treating the numbers as informational and noted master-planned communities and zoning variations make the theoretical maxima unlikely in practice.
