Transit officials warn of managed decline without new state funding

Jamieson Auden of the Lane Transit District told the Rebuilding Our Transportation Vision working group that transit systems across Oregon face a “managed decline” if state funding does not increase. He said agencies are recovering ridership but not revenues: “At LTD, we’re pushing about 70% on our recovery,” and even with ridership gains, “inflation is tracking just under 6% at 5.8%,” forcing cuts and reserve draws.

Auden and his subgroup flagged several concrete risks: rising vehicle procurement and fuel costs, insurance and labor increases, and the potential loss of passenger rail service that would add vehicle miles traveled to I‑5. He warned that under one set of scenarios agencies would see an 11% service reduction even if some funds doubled, and that over 10 years the system could lose roughly 20% of current transit service if revenues stay flat. “Once it’s gone, it’s hard to get ridership back,” Auden said.

The transit subgroup recommended that state funding should support baseline service while local funds address local priorities. Members urged the working group to analyze scenarios that show exactly which routes and communities would lose service under different funding packages, and to develop performance measures aligned to state goals so the value of transit investments is clearer to policymakers.

Next steps: the subgroup will supply case studies and mapped scenarios for the working group’s forthcoming memos so legislators and the public can see concrete trade‑offs between funding levels and service outcomes.