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Regional housing needs assessment warns of 34,000-unit shortfall by 2029
Summary
A Land of Sky Regional Council presentation to the Buncombe County housing committee said the 2025 assessment estimates a shortfall of more than 34,000 housing units in the region by 2029 and flagged affordability burdens that disproportionately affect renters and special-needs populations.
Jacob, a presenter with the Land of Sky Regional Council, told the Buncombe County housing committee that the council’s 2025 Housing Needs Assessment estimates "we have over 34,000 units that are gonna be needed by 2029," including roughly 14,000 rental units and just over 20,000 for-sale units. He said regional population growth and long-standing supply gaps, not only storm-related displacement, drive the projection.
The presenter said the study used U.S. Census and American Community Survey data, ESRI inputs and stakeholder feedback and contrasted a low vacancy rate in the assessment (about 3–4%) with recent local media reports of roughly 10 percent. "A healthy market's got about 7%," Jacob said, arguing much of the apparent vacancy is concentrated in higher-end units that remain unaffordable to most residents.
Jacob highlighted affordability and cost-burden statistics: the study found roughly 50% of renters are cost-burdened (paying more than 30% of income for housing) and 10–20% are severely cost-burdened (paying 50% or more). He said the region’s planned pipeline — about 4,000 multifamily units and 434 for-sale homes pending permits — largely targets higher-end demand and will not close the shortfall for lower-income households.
The presentation also singled out an aging-population need: Jacob said the assessment projects "about 7,700 homes or senior care beds that are gonna be needed by 2029," a demand separate from the overall 34,000-unit deficit. He recommended a mix of preservation, down-payment assistance and renter-deposit support as stakeholder-prioritized interventions to stabilize access for low- and moderate-income residents.
The committee asked clarifying questions about in-migration versus local stock deterioration; Jacob said much of the shortfall existed before recent storms and the pandemic and stressed that both preservation of existing units and new, varied housing types will be necessary to respond to demand. The committee did not take a vote on the assessment itself and directed no formal next step in the meeting.
The full Housing Needs Assessment and related slides were provided to committee members and are available on the Asheville area and Land of Sky Regional Council websites per the presenter.
