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Housing projections expected to add several hundred students but unit mix matters
Summary
District slides showed 1,745 projected housing units (2025–2029) in the district and estimated 578–606 students from those units depending on unit type; presenter emphasized that single‑family yields far more students than townhomes, apartments or condos.
Reinhardt connected housing forecasts to projected student yield per unit: single‑family detached units yield the most K–12 students per unit, townhomes about 0.22 students/unit, apartments 0.11–0.15, and condos very little (0.02–0.05). The presentation listed 1,745 projected dwelling units in the district for 2025–2029 (50 single family and 38 condos in Wayzata specifically, with larger totals across Plymouth and Medina).
Using typical yields, the slides estimated 578–606 students from the projected 2025–2029 housing units. Reinhardt cautioned that housing type mix matters: the 2020–2024 period was 76% single‑family, whereas projected 2025–2029 units were only about 43% single‑family—so expected student yield per unit will decline unless more single‑family units are built.
The presentation also flagged potential large redevelopment in Plymouth (City Center & Station redevelopment) that could substantially increase multi‑family units and reduce per‑unit student yield. The board packet asked staff to consider housing scenarios when updating long‑range enrollment models.
