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Gleason Lake and Greenwood projected to lose students; Meadow Ridge set to gain
Summary
School‑level projections show the largest elementary decreases at Gleason Lake (–94 students) and Greenwood (–130) by 2029–30 while Meadow Ridge and Kimberly Lane are projected to grow; boundary changes in 2025–26 complicate school‑level trends.
Reinhardt's slides included school‑by‑school five‑year projections and caveated that pending elementary boundary changes for 2025–26 interrupt trend lines and reduce confidence in some school forecasts.
Under the high kindergarten/high migration scenario, Meadow Ridge is projected to grow by 115 students (to 879 in 2029–30) while Gleason Lake and Greenwood are projected to decline substantially (Gleason Lake −94 to 510; Greenwood −130 to 633). The presentation attributed these changes to large grades aging out of specific attendance areas and to varied demographic composition across neighborhoods.
Reinhardt noted that the sum of independently produced elementary projections aligns reasonably with the districtwide projection, but she cautioned that individual school projections are sensitive to boundary adjustments. Board materials list estimated kindergarten shares used for the projections and instruct staff to update projections if board decisions change boundaries.
