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Wayzata projections show overall K–12 growth but shrinking kindergarten cohorts
Summary
District demographer Hazel H. Reinhardt presented May 27 enrollment projections showing K–12 enrollment up 2,114 since 2014–15 but declining kindergarten cohorts; 10‑year projections range from about 13,052 to 13,874 depending on kindergarten capture and migration assumptions.
Hazel H. Reinhardt, presenter of the district’s enrollment study, told the Wayzata Public Schools Board of Education on May 27 that the district’s K–12 enrollment rose by 2,114 students (19.9%) between 2014–15 and 2024–25 while resident enrollment grew by 2,429 students (24.3%).
Reinhardt presented four cohort‑survival projections through 2034–35. Using a low kindergarten/low migration scenario, total enrollment is projected to reach about 13,052 in 2034–35; under a high kindergarten/high migration scenario the projection rises to about 13,874. The presentation showed net in‑migration assumptions averaging roughly 260–333 students per year under the scenarios used.
"Wayzata Public Schools K‑12 enrollment increased by 2,114 students or 19.9 percent," Reinhardt's materials stated, and the presentation included district fall‑enrollment tables showing 12,760 students in 2024–25. The slides explained that differences among the four projections stem largely from migration assumptions rather than kindergarten assumptions.
The presentation noted implications for planning: while total district enrollment is expected to increase under the modeled scenarios, the distribution of students shifts—elementary grades are generally flat or declining in many scenarios while middle‑ and high‑school grades grow—so facility and staffing planning should reflect grade‑specific changes. The board did not take a vote on any action during the work session; the presentation concluded with an invitation for further discussion and follow‑up modeling if members requested alternative assumptions.
