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Poll shows modest voter support for $300 million Natomas Unified bond; board orders measure for November ballot
Summary
Consultant FM3 reported initial support near 57% and a modeled 64% yes when leaners are included for a proposed $300 million facilities bond. The Board unanimously approved Resolution 26-24 to place the measure on the November ballot and authorized related actions.
The Natomas Unified School District board heard results from FM3 Research showing initial favorability for a proposed $300,000,000 facilities bond and voted to place the measure on the November ballot.
Kurt Balow of FM3 Research told trustees the survey of likely voters (about 400 interviews completed in late May) produced an initial yes response of 57% to the tested ballot language and, "when we put those leaners in there, we get to that 64% number," a level the consultant said gives the district a comfortable margin above the 55% approval threshold in many scenarios. Balow described the survey as a dual-mode, likely-voter sample with a reported marginal sampling error of roughly ±5% for the full sample and about ±7% for split sub-samples.
The poll found the strongest voter intensity around continuing to provide "quality education," with specific high-priority spending categories including repairs to electrical and HVAC systems, safe play areas, ADA accessibility, and modernization of aging classrooms. Balow summarized the methodology and results, noting that "about 55% said their perception of the buildings is more positive than negative," and that messaging tests of typical negative frames (cost of living, opposition campaigns) produced modest shifts rather than large swings in support.
Board members asked several follow-up questions about sampling, demographic quotas, and whether the poll had stress-tested typical opposition arguments. Balow said the survey included common negative frames (gas prices, district waste, multiple outstanding bonds) and that responses remained relatively stable under those tests. Associate Superintendent Doug Orr and financial advisor Lori Ranieri contextualized the findings for trustees and presented draft ballot language and an estimated financial plan showing a projected maximum tax rate in the materials (documented as $60 per $100,000 assessed value in the presentation).
After discussion, the board adopted Resolution 26-24, authorizing the actions necessary to place the $300 million bond measure on the November ballot. The roll-call vote was 5-0 in favor.
