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Consultant warns of softened sales-tax outlook; staff used conservative assumptions
Summary
Staff said consultant HDL signaled a statewide sales-tax slowdown and revised projections downward; Corte Madera used conservative sales-tax assumptions (including a previously signaled 10% cut and later an 8% reduction for 25/26) when updating the 10-year forecast.
Committee members probed the sales-tax assumptions in the 10-year forecast after staff flagged the paramedic revenue loss as the principal concern. Chris said the town’s consultant, HDL, began warning in February of a statewide softening in sales-tax revenue and revised the town’s forecast multiple times; "They said 10% for next fiscal year," Chris said, and later that forecast was cut by 8% for 2025–26.
Committee members noted local store vacancies and asked whether projections reflect local merchant performance; Chris said staff review merchant-by-merchant data where possible but are constrained by state confidentiality rules and therefore rely on HDL’s conservative forecasts. He offered to provide spreadsheets and the underlying models to committee members for deeper review and follow-up.
