KCAG presents four RTP/SCS scenarios to Kings County board; modeled benefits modest without program investments

Kaylee Clay of the Kings County Association of Governments and consultant Jim Dankiewicz (DKS) gave an overview of the regional transportation plan/SCS update, describing four scenarios the county will consider: A (current trend), B (accelerated accessory dwelling unit growth), C (land‑use efficiency/VMT‑efficient growth), and D (enhanced mobility with greater investment in active transportation, broadband and electromobility). "This document serves as a road map for transportation investment in the county," Clay said, explaining the update is required every four years.

Dankiewicz summarized testing and modeling results: scenario B assumes an accelerated ADU market response with an estimated 450 new ADUs by 2035 and about 1,400 by 2049; scenario C (VMT‑efficient land‑use) produced the lowest modeled VMT when isolating land‑use effects, but the absolute daily VMT reduction from land‑use change alone was modest (roughly 13,000 VMT per day in the modeling context). He emphasized that individual programs and projects — transit, active transportation, telework and employer trip reduction programs — produce VMT reductions that exceed what can be achieved through land‑use changes alone. Dankiewicz said all scenarios pass federal criteria pollutant tests and that the ARB target for per‑capita greenhouse‑gas reductions for Kings County was about a 13% reduction by 2035; scenarios A–C achieved roughly a 14% reduction, with scenario D performing slightly better. KCAG will seek a preferred scenario in August, return a final RTP/SCS to KCAG in September and advance approvals with state and federal agencies later in the year.