Chair proposes two‑year delay to scheduled Preschool for All tax increase as board weighs modeling

Chair Gregor Peterson told the board he will bring an ordinance to delay the scheduled 0.8% Preschool for All tax increase for two years, describing the move as a way to preserve the program while staff finalize updated demographic forecasts and a true cost‑of‑care study.

"My plan is to bring a proposal to delay the tax increase for 2 years," Peterson said. Budget office economist Jeff Renfro walked the board through modeling results that used an updated PSU demographic forecast: baseline assumptions reduce the number of seats from about 11,200 to just above 8,000, a change that improves projected fund balances. Renfro presented a TAG scenario that assumes a two‑year delay and updated seat costs and reported the fund balance still bottomed above zero (around $250 million) in that scenario. He also showed downside scenarios—higher participation, higher inclusion costs, and larger reserve policies combined with a recession—that would erode reserves and could push the fund below zero.

Several commissioners said they wanted additional scenario modeling (for example a one‑year delay, and isolated effects of single policy choices rather than layered stress tests) and asked staff for clearer, redlined ordinance language and fiscal crosswalks before votes later this month. The board will consider ordinance votes on Aug. 20 and Aug. 27 and must finalize tax-code decisions by Aug. 31 to affect next year's collections.