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Meteorologist John Morales warns NOAA staffing and observation cuts could weaken hurricane forecasting
Summary
At a City of Miami Climate Resilience Committee meeting, meteorologist John Morales warned that personnel and observation reductions at NOAA/NWS — including fewer weather‑balloon releases and reduced hurricane‑hunter capacity — have degraded model accuracy and shorten lead times for rapid intensification events, and he urged municipalities to prepare for at least one category stronger than forecast.
John Morales, founder and chief atmospheric environmental scientist at ClimateData, told the City of Miami Climate Resilience Committee that recent staffing and observational cuts at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Weather Service have reduced the data underpinning forecast models and could increase the risk of surprise rapid intensification.
Morales described nationwide gaps in radiosonde (weather‑balloon) releases and declines in hurricane‑hunter flight capacity, and said those gaps have coincided with what he perceives as a downturn in model performance this year. He used the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Otis and Hurricane Dorian to illustrate how limited observations can lead forecasters to underestimate a storm’s eventual strength. "I am afraid that we could have the same thing happen here because a plane doesn't fly, because a balloon wasn't released," Morales said, arguing that missing observations erode confidence in forecasts.
In response to questions about municipal options, Morales recommended planning for a "reasonable worst case," citing the National Weather Service's hurricane impact graphics as a tool that shows conservative scenarios cities can use for preparedness. He also suggested that cities consider supplemental services — municipal weather consultants and freely available AI forecast tools — while advocating that federal observational capacity be preserved. "Prepare for at least 1 category worse," Morales advised during the Q&A.
The committee framed Morales' presentation as background for a draft resolution urging the city to advocate for federal and state funding to preserve NOAA and NWS capacity and to audit the city's dependencies on federal observational data. The committee subsequently moved and unanimously approved a revised resolution to forward to the City Commission.
