Virginia Tech study says industrial uses yield faster fiscal payback for Pathway Park

Ashley Poschimus, an economic development specialist with the Virginia Tech Center for Economic and Community Engagement, presented an ROI assessment for Pathway Park that focused on the site's 46.2 acres of developable land. "My name is Ashley Poschimus. I'm an economic development specialist with Virginia Tech Center for Economic and Community Engagement," she told the board before walking through modeling assumptions and results.

Poschimus said the analysis modeled three target industry clusters—advanced manufacturing, food and beverage, and plastics/chemical manufacturing—because prior grants (Tobacco Commission and Go Virginia infrastructure awards) restrict the site to advanced industrial development. She told the board the study modeled five industrial development scenarios and that, in each scenario, annual tax revenue and broader regional economic activity produced a positive fiscal return. She said the county's roughly $5,800,000 investment could be repaid within five to ten years and that including induced and indirect regional impacts could shorten payback to about three to five years.

Board members pressed the consultant on feasibility and site readiness. Poschimus flagged the Route 11 entrance redesign as the key remaining hurdle to reaching 'tier 5' readiness and said that improvement would improve marketability. She also explained methodology: the study used an input-output model (IMPLAN) to estimate direct, indirect and induced impacts, and compared industrial scenarios to nonindustrial alternatives (for example, a sports complex), which the study showed would generate markedly lower annual tax revenue and much longer payback periods.

County staff and commissioners emphasized local constraints and tradeoffs: limited acreage (46.2 developable acres), local workforce and housing availability, and the long time horizon for large-site development. A county staff member said the county has "three current prospects" for the site and that the report is meant to help narrow recruitment and outreach efforts.

Next steps recommended by Virginia Tech included resolving the Route 11 entrance redesign to reach tier-5 readiness, focusing recruitment on the clusters that meet grant expectations, and pursuing a co-location/multi-tenant strategy to maximize site use. The consultant said the team would provide a full report for more detailed building-size and scenario assumptions.