County cites third‑party regression: splash revenue estimate $39M (conservative), could be $43M
Summary
County officials said a third‑party 15‑year regression produced a conservative splash revenue estimate of about $39 million; using a five‑year look raises the projection to approximately $43 million — a point used to justify the county's allocation proposals.
County officials told the meeting they commissioned or reviewed a third‑party regression analysis using 15 years of data that produced a conservative mid‑point revenue estimate of about $39 million for the SPLOST/splash cycle. They said a shorter, five‑year look reflects recent growth and would push the projection to about $43 million.
Officials used the difference in forecast horizons to argue for the county’s negotiating position: a conservative $39 million baseline was cited when discussing what percentages each jurisdiction could reasonably accept, while several speakers noted recent collections had exceeded earlier projections, suggesting upside to the county’s revenue forecast.
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