Commissioners flag uncertainty in provider-supplied supply projections

Commissioners and one member of the public pressed staff to clarify that supply projections in the draft plan come from water providers and were not independently verified. "These are not the conclusions of the commission as to water supply risk. We're merely reporting what the water providers told us," one commissioner said, urging an explicit disclaimer in the report. The commission discussed whether to ask providers for best/worst-case ranges or to add sensitivity analysis in future iterations.

Members agreed the plan should show how supply estimates were derived and add language that the projections were provider-supplied without independent water-rights verification. James Ecklan recommended staff and the consultant document the verification steps taken (if any) and present any limits of certainty in the executive summary and technical appendices.