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After weak state forecast, committee keeps conservative budget posture
Summary
Committee members flagged a disappointing May state revenue forecast — described as about $800 million less over the biennium — and confirmed the district is maintaining conservative assumptions (budgeting at 1.136) while monitoring negotiations.
Committee members and staff raised concerns about an unexpectedly weak Oregon revenue forecast released May 14 and explained how that influences district budgeting choices.
The chair summarized the forecast’s impact, saying the May 14 numbers were 'about seven about eight $800 million less over the bianium than what they were hoping for.' Staff emphasized the district will budget conservatively at the previously discussed 1.136 level and noted that while the state maintains healthy ending fund balances, additional quarters of data will be needed to know final revenue outcomes.
Staff also warned that increases district advocates had hoped for—particularly changes to special-education funding caps and other program augmentations—are unlikely in the short term given the forecast. The committee discussed contingency planning and the possibility of a supplemental budget if negotiated salaries exceed the adopted appropriations.
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