NWS and fire behavior analyst say recent humidity gains sharply reduced spread; drying may return next week
Summary
National Weather Service and fire behavior analysts described a favorable short-term weather pattern that reduced spread from roughly a mile a day to inches or feet per day, but warned that drying toward next week could revive activity.
National Weather Service forecaster Ryan Walburn and fire behavior analyst Nathan Lancaster gave residents the meteorological and behavioral context for recent suppression gains.
Walburn said portable stations have been deployed around the fire and reported extremely dry pockets earlier in the incident (one station down to around 1% relative humidity), but that recent onshore winds and higher humidity aloft have moderated behavior at elevations near 3,000 feet. "We've really moistened things up," he said, while noting the region remains in peak fire season.
Lancaster described three areas of current concern (North Fork of Little Sur, a spot near Double Cone, and the North Fork of Big Sur moving toward Black Cone Trail) and said the rate of spread has dropped from about a mile a day during the hottest stretch to "inches or feet a day" under current conditions. He cautioned that drying toward the weekend and into next week could increase activity again and that crews are watching for upslope runs as fuels dry.
Both presenters emphasized the value of nighttime recovery and ongoing monitoring through IR flights and drones to guide where crews can safely engage.
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