Jefferson County WI Board Meeting (November 11th, 2025)

Jefferson County Board of Supervisors · November 13, 2025

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Presentation: financial-reserve risk analysis and Monte Carlo modeling

Presentation

15:45 → 32:00(16m 15s)

A consultant presented a quantitative analysis of Jefferson County reserves and risks, explaining that reserves function as insurance against recessions, floods, severe storms and miscellaneous hazards. The presenter said the analysis used Monte Carlo simulation with 10,000 "parallel universes" to estimate probabilities and recommended a reserves range (roughly $14 million–$15.4 million for 80–90% confidence against a $9,000,000 critical threshold). The presenter argued a range is preferable to a single-point target.

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County board reviewed a financial reserves analysis, received annual reports (Fair Park, Veterans, Planning, Medical Examiner, Health), and moved a package of budget, levy and ordinance measures including adoption of the 2026 county budget and a fund-balance ordinance. Several resolutions passed by voice or roll call; a land sale letter of intent to Project Universe and a pre-disaster flood grant participation were authorized for next steps.

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Transcript

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