Estimating Error Rates of Firearm Identifications Using the CMC Method

National Institute of Standards and Technology presentation · February 17, 2026

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Introduction of speaker

Presentation

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Unidentified speaker introduces Dr. Forberger and summarizes his affiliations and prior work: guest researcher in the surface and nanostructure method metrology group in engineering physics at the National Institute of Standards and Technology and co-leader on projects developing standard bullets/cartridge cases and assessing a national ballistic imaging database under a National Academies project.

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Dr. Forberger, a guest researcher at the National Institute of Standards and Technology, presented research on estimating false-positive error rates for a ballistic comparison technique called the congruent matching cells (CMC) method and argued the method could scale to large casework but stressed substantial measurement and modeling uncertainties remain.

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