Scenario modeling shows Newcastle decision can shift millions between city and county
Presenter showed two scenarios: with Newcastle opting into a countywide rate the county and city receipts follow one pattern; if Newcastle opts out, the county's share increases considerably while Newcastle's own receipts fall—illustrating a key trade-off for the city.
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Presenter used an illustrative pair of scenarios to show how Newcastle's choice to opt in or out of a countywide municipal rate materially affects allocations. "If Newcastle goes out on their own, they're not setting their own way," the Presenter said, and showed an example in which Newcastle would receive roughly $2 million less than under the countywide-max scenario while the county share would rise (presenter cited roughly $6.2M in the opt-out example).
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