Anchorage School District: First-semester data show mixed attendance effects after start-time changes

Anchorage School District staff on March 18 told the school board that one semester of data after the district’s shift in bell times shows limited, mixed effects and is insufficient to draw firm conclusions about academic or attendance impacts.

Superintendent (name not specified in transcript) opened the work session by saying the presentation would summarize the timeline of the start-time change, a snapshot of key data points and the limits of the analysis. “We really have to look at any data point with a grain of salt, just so we can look at this through the research lens,” the superintendent said, adding that the district’s chi-square analysis can show correlation but not causation and that more years of data would be needed for stronger conclusions.

The nut graf: district staff reported small year-to-year changes in overall attendance and course failure (F) rates, statistically significant decreases in chronic absenteeism at elementary and middle school levels, and mixed results for tardies. Officials and board members repeatedly emphasized that multiple simultaneous changes — including moving sixth graders to middle school, later middle-school start times, and PLC (professional learning community) Mondays — complicate any attribution of outcomes to start times alone.

Most important findings - Overall attendance (first semester): staff reported a four-year view that showed little change, noting 88% overall attendance in 2021 and 89.7% in the most recent first semester; staff said the difference was not statistically significant. - Elementary, middle and high breakdowns: elementary attendance rose from about 89% to roughly 90%; middle school rose by about 1 percentage point; high school change was about 0.6 percentage points over four years. Staff characterized those as not statistically significant for attendance. - Chronic absenteeism: measured only beginning last year, staff said elementary chronic absenteeism decreased by about 1.5 percentage points and middle school decreased by more than 3 percentage points; both were reported as statistically significant. High school chronic absenteeism rose a small amount and was not statistically significant. - Course F rates (period 1): middle-school F rates decreased by 0.9 percentage point and high-school F rates decreased by 0.4 percentage point; the overall change was about 0.6 percentage point and not statistically significant. - Tardies: AM tardies at elementary increased by about 5 percentage points (statistically significant); middle-school period-1 tardies decreased by 0.8 percentage point (statistically significant); high-school period-1 tardies rose by 0.4 percentage point (statistically significant).

Limitations and context District staff repeatedly cautioned that the data reflect the first semester after the change and that other coincident changes and external factors make causal attribution to start times unreliable. Dr. Bridal (staff member, title not specified) and the superintendent noted the district also changed grade configuration (sixth grade to middle school), retained late-start PLC Mondays, implemented PBIS efforts and is beginning new data programs for student mental-health measures. Staff said mental-health indicators are not yet measured by a robust, centralized system and that weather, holidays and socioeconomic shifts can affect attendance and academic metrics.

Board reaction and follow-up requests School Board member Jacobs said she appreciated the report and asked specifically about the effect on vulnerable student groups (students in transition, economically disadvantaged students, English learners and free-and-reduced-price-lunch students). Jacobs noted the middle-school subgroup trends warrant monitoring and asked whether buildings were being opened early on PLC Mondays; staff replied that buildings were available but not heavily used. “I appreciate the presentation and the update,” Member Jacobs said.

Member Bellamy and other board members asked about transportation and after-school activities. Mr. Anderson (staff member) said traffic signal adjustments and higher early-year vehicle traffic stabilized after roughly a month and that district staff had received many initial emails about transportation that tapered off. The district reported it is piloting GPS bus tracking next school year with automated ridership logging (swipe cards) to gather more precise ridership data.

Several board members asked for continued monitoring and more qualitative input from principals and teachers. Member Donnelly suggested inviting a handful of principals from each level to a future work session to describe operational impacts.

No formal board action The meeting was a work session for discussion and information; no motions or votes on start times were taken.

Ending Staff recommended the board treat these first-semester results as preliminary and continue routine monitoring; multiple board members said they expect the district to return with additional data over the next semesters or years before considering policy changes.