AECOM pitches open-source predictive model to county procurement committee for pipeline failures

AECOM representatives presented to the county procurement committee overseeing solicitation RPS 25-00208 in a virtual oral presentation that the firm can deliver a platform-agnostic, open-source predictive model for pipeline failures and a user interface the county would own and operate.

Why it matters: The committee was told the model would allow the county to shift from reactive repairs to data-driven capital planning and condition-assessment prioritization, and that the approach avoids subscription “black boxes” by keeping algorithms open and auditable.

AECOM’s presenters — lead Sameer Alkati, technical lead Chris Macy and project manager Tania Simmons — described a multistep program that reuses the county’s existing Esri, Oracle and Microsoft investments, uses Monte Carlo scenario analysis and produces outputs intended to drive rehabilitation and replacement prioritization. Alkati said the proposal favors “no black boxes” and that the firm’s algorithms are “fully open source. They’re explainable and auditable,” enabling local staff to defend and adapt the models to future needs.

Chris Macy outlined the technical rationale for the modeling approach, saying modern predictive models should model the deterioration and intervention processes and that different pipe sizes and…