Helsinki Commission: "Bad peace" in Ukraine would embolden Kremlin, threaten Moldova, Belarus, Georgia and Armenia

Sen. Roger Wicker, chair of the Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe (the U.S. Helsinki Commission), opened the hearing by warning that "it is Ukrainians themselves who will overwhelmingly bear the cost of a peace deal that rewards Russian aggression." He said witnesses would focus on the regional implications if Russia secures territorial or political gains in Ukraine.

The commission convened a panel of experts who told members that a peace that legitimizes Russian occupation would create a cascade of strategic, political and humanitarian harms across Eastern Europe and the South Caucasus. Michael Cecciri, identified in the hearing as a defense and security policy researcher at the RAND Corporation, said Moldova’s reforms and EU candidate status are vulnerable if Russia gains contiguous access through Ukraine and Transnistria. "Moldova is becoming a success story," Cecciri said, but he warned a Russian victory would provide Moscow contiguous access to Transnistria and "could also play a more overt role in other vulnerable regions of Moldova."

Dr. Kopalian, introduced as an assistant professor in residence of political science at the University of Nevada, framed the risk to the South Caucasus similarly: a coercive peace would allow Russia to freeze conflicts in its favor and later reinitiate aggression. "Bad peace allows Moscow to form and recalibrate its capabilities, push for sanctions relief, buy time to rebuild its war machine, and then unfreeze the conflict and initiate a return to war," Kopalian said. He recommended that U.S. policy focus on durable enforcement mechanisms, equity for affected populations, and support for nascent democracies.

Hannah Lyubakhova, a Belarusian journalist in exile and nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, said Belarus has been transformed into a Russian military outpost and that repression at home fuels aggression abroad. She told commissioners that "there can be no lasting peace while Russian troops and nuclear weapons remain in Belarus" and urged a clear demand for permanent withdrawal of Russian forces and removal of nuclear deployments.

Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse and other members emphasized the financial and legal tools that shape Kremlin capacity. Whitehouse said "kleptocracy is on the march in Eastern Europe," and urged restoring and resourcing U.S. efforts that target illicit finance. Witnesses and commissioners discussed laws and tools mentioned in testimony, including the Corporate Transparency Act, the Foreign Extortion Prevention Act, the kleptocracy asset recovery initiative, the KleptoCapture task force, Global Magnitsky authorities and the Belarus Democracy Act. Witnesses recommended reconstituting specialized asset-recovery units, extending beneficial-ownership transparency, and tightening sanctions targeting intermediaries and jurisdictions that allow sanction circumvention.

Panelists gave specific examples and figures during questioning: Lyubakhova said roughly 1,200 political prisoners remain in Belarus and described transfers of children and the use of Belarusian firms in support of Russian military needs; she and other witnesses cited satellite imagery and public reporting that Russia is upgrading storage and staging facilities inside Belarus and that a large-scale military exercise in Belarus could involve about 13,000 Russian troops. Witnesses also described patterns of forced passportization, settlement of Russian citizens in occupied Ukrainian territories, and coordinated efforts to impose Russian curricula and administration on those populations.

Commission members pressed witnesses on how to assess local sentiment under occupation. Panelists said direct measurement is difficult where repression and demographic engineering are ongoing, but pointed to large prewar protests (including Euromaidan) and polling from independent bodies such as Chatham House as evidence that many in occupied areas do not accept forcible absorption. Kopalian cautioned that any negotiated settlement must be assessed for sustainability: a deal imposed under coercion or that rewards territorial conquest is likely to collapse and invite renewed aggression.

Throughout the hearing commissioners urged stronger, coordinated measures: reimpose and extend targeted sanctions to close evasion routes through Belarus, bolster enforcement of the Corporate Transparency Act rather than narrowing it, reestablish specialized DOJ and Treasury asset-recovery units, and consider appointing a special U.S. envoy for Belarus. No formal actions or votes were taken at the hearing; commissioners recorded statements and questioned witnesses.

The Helsinki Commission hearing combined strategic assessments — on Moldova, Armenia, Georgia and Belarus — with policy prescriptions aimed at denying Russia the military, financial and diplomatic gains that would follow a negotiated settlement legitimizing conquest. Commissioners closed by underscoring bipartisan congressional support for sustained engagement with vulnerable partners and for tools that make territorial conquest a strategic and political loss for Moscow rather than a reward.

No formal votes or resolutions were adopted during the hearing. The commission adjourned after roughly two hours of testimony and questioning.