Pasco district unveils predictive dashboard, previews school-grade changes and targeted supports

Superintendent Mike opened the June workshop by calling the presentation “one of the most important things we can discuss,” introducing a new predictive dashboard district staff built with the Otis team to estimate school grades before the state posts official results.

Dr. Iles, a district staff presenter, said the objectives were “to review the end of year proficiency scores” and to show the new data screens so leaders can act “based on real data” rather than waiting for mid‑July state releases. The district’s tool, referred to as Insight Ed in the presentation, is intended to let principals see scores and subcategory cells in near real time so the district can make staffing and program decisions earlier in the summer.

The nut graf: district officials said the model gives early, actionable signals about which schools are likely to gain or lose letter grades and where to concentrate resources, but cautioned this is the first year of the predictive model and alternative (state) assessments and final state calculations could change some predictions.

District leaders presented several proficiency trends. For K–2 ELA the district reported gains in kindergarten and first grade and a two‑point decline in second grade; officials noted the district remains about three percentage points above the state average for second grade. One presenter said “point 56% of the variance is decided upon based on that second grade score,” stressing second grade proficiency’s predictive value for later outcomes.

For grades 3–10 ELA the district reported increases from last year in all ELA areas, but remained below the state average in fourth, fifth, sixth and eighth grades. In math, early grades rose but some elementary grades were below the state average; district staff said the new math adoption and summer training are part of the response. Science—especially elementary science—was flagged as a systemic concern: officials said elementary science scores are 20–30 percentage points lower in some schools than expected relative to ELA and math, and the curriculum team and assistant superintendents will monitor and align instruction and assessments.

On the school‑grade predictions, district staff said the model currently projects a net increase in A‑level schools. The presentation listed roughly 20 schools expected to gain a letter grade, including Cox Elementary (D to B), Pasco Elementary (D to C), Woodland Elementary (D to C) and multiple middle and high schools that are predicted to move up. Officials also said six currently identified opportunity (D or F) schools are projected to reach a C or higher and that three schools remained in the opportunity category. The district reported 20 schools up one or more letter grades and highlighted specific campuses in the slides.

Officials reviewed responses for schools in or near turnaround. Cox Elementary received continued external support from MGT and MJT and was cited as a turnaround example the district hopes to replicate. The district said it has an RFP underway to identify outside support for Gulf Middle School and that staff are preparing state turnaround plans earlier than past years rather than waiting until the final state calculation. One board member asked whether failing campuses could be converted to external operators or charters; staff confirmed state action is possible if turnaround targets are not met.

Staff clarified several implementation limits and timelines: the predictive model uses the 2023–24 technical assistance approach for school grades and excludes some state alternative assessments until those results arrive; the model also currently includes only students present in survey 2 and survey 3 windows for its internal school‑level projections. Dr. Iles said, “this is our first year implementing this predictive model,” and that the model will be refined after matching predicted results to the final state grades.

The district said the dashboard is for internal use by school leaders and central staff to plan staffing, professional development and school improvement activities; it will not be posted publicly in its predictive form. Officials described next steps as continuing MGT support for Cox, issuing an RFP for Gulf Middle School turnaround assistance, submitting required plans to the state as needed, and using the dashboard to guide summer training and fall implementation.

The presentation closed with a reminder about the human dimension: Dr. Iles said the data “represent students who will be our future neighbors, caretakers and citizens,” and that maintaining a focus on student outcomes should guide the district’s next steps.

Ending: board members thanked staff for the transparency and the new tool; no formal vote was recorded in the workshop transcript, and staff said they will return to the board with turnaround plans and any contract recommendations as those actions are developed.