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Experts warn Congress that Russia, Iran and regional rivals could exploit Syria’s transition
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Summary
Witnesses told a House subcommittee that Russia and Iran have strategic incentives to retain footholds in Syria and urged U.S. diplomacy and targeted measures — including sanctions on entities that profit from reconstruction — to prevent Moscow and Tehran from gaining leverage.
Witnesses before the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee argued that post‑Assad Syria is a strategic prize for Russia, Iran and other regional actors and that the United States should use diplomatic and economic tools to limit Moscow and Tehran’s ability to exploit reconstruction.
Anna Borshevskaya said Russia views Syria and the Eastern Mediterranean as central to its regional strategy and warned Moscow “seeks to replace our influence and remake the world order with itself at the center.” She recommended limiting Russia’s ability to profit from Syrian reconstruction by targeting illicit shipping and economic intermediaries she described as the Kremlin’s “ghost fleet.”
Panelists highlighted two Russian bases and other foreign military presences as leverage points for Moscow’s regional projection. Members asked whether Russia could maintain a nominal degree of control over those bases; witnesses said Russia has a real chance to do so unless the United States and its partners demonstrate sustained engagement.
Several witnesses suggested coordinating reconstruction efforts so that Gulf and Western funding does not inadvertently channel profits to Russian or Iranian actors, and they proposed sanctions or other measures against entities that help Moscow monetize Syria’s recovery. David Schenker and others noted recent contract shifts at Tartus Port, where a previously Russian engineering firm was removed and an $800 million deal with Dubai Ports World was cited as an example of changing economic alignments.
Witnesses also recommended practical steps for deconfliction among regional militaries — for example urging Israel and Turkey to establish hotlines to prevent unintended escalation — and urged Congress to press for a coherent interagency approach and allied unity to undercut Russian and Iranian influence.
