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County study forecasts long-term jail bed shortfall unless case processing or detention practices change
Summary
Consultants told commissioners that, under current practices, Union County’s average daily jail population could reach about 657 by 2050 requiring roughly 822 beds; opening a larger facility could cause bookings to rise quickly and planners recommended evaluating operational, judicial and phasing options before committing to a total build-out.
Justice Planners and design partners presented an update Feb. 3 on Union County’s ongoing jail needs assessment, telling the Board of Commissioners that under current practices the county faces substantial jail bed needs over the coming decades.
Consultant Patrick Jablonski said the firm modeled bookings (people brought to the jail) and average length of stay to produce multiple simulations based on data through September 2024. Using the state demographer’s adult-population projections and local arrest and booking data, the consultants’ primary scenario projects bookings will grow from about 15 to roughly 30 per day by 2050 and average daily population (ADP) could reach approximately 657 inmates. After accounting for peaking and classification needs, the consultants estimated a bed requirement of about 822 beds in that “no change” scenario.
Consultants emphasized two important sensitivities: first, average length of stay has increased because the county’s case mix now includes a higher share of serious violent charges that take longer to process; second, when more bed space becomes available bookings may increase rapidly because some arrests are currently suppressed by capacity constraints. The consultants said budgeting and staffing implications are substantial: operational costs (especially staffing, medical care and utilities) will far exceed construction costs over a facility’s life.
Commissioners and consultants discussed missing criminal court-case-level data that Justice Planners requested from state court systems; the consultants said they could not obtain raw case-processing data needed to identify specific back-end delays. Staff said the study will move to a program-development and preliminary-staffing phase once the board chooses a target bed count and core size; consultants estimated that 60–90 days after the board sets bed-count direction, they can produce a completed study and refined cost estimates.
Commissioners asked for comparisons with other North Carolina counties and for clearer judicial-case-processing data; the consultant and staff said they would provide additional comparative information and identify the state contact who declined raw case data. No board decision to build was made on Feb. 3.
