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CDCR projects modest five-year prison population decline as Prop 36 effects evolve
Summary
CDCR told a Senate budget subcommittee that spring 2025 population projections show a 3.1% net decline in the state prison population through June 30, 2029, while officials said the full effects of Proposition 36 remain uncertain and will be monitored as implementation continues.
The California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation told the Senate Budget Subcommittee No. 5 on May 20 that spring 2025 projections show a net 3.1% decrease in the state prison population from June 30, 2024, to June 30, 2029.
Kathy Jefferson, deputy director for CDCR’s Office of Research, said CDCR bases projections on historical data and on expected impacts of legislation, policy and process changes in place through Dec. 31, 2024. Jefferson told the panel that the department factored Prop 36 implementation into its estimates but is treating the change as gradual rather than immediate.
“Admissions began January 2025, but rather than assuming a full immediate impact, we are now assuming that there would be a slow, gradual increase from January 2025 through February 2026, at which point it would level off,” Jefferson said, attributing the slower ramp-up to local implementation time and individuals choosing mandated treatment options.
CDCR also adjusted assumptions about parole supervision. Jefferson said the department continues to assume an average length of stay of about 11 months but reduced its estimate of the share of people returning to parole supervision from 20% to about 3%, with the remainder expected to enter post-release community supervision.
Legislative staff and budget analysts said the May revision’s downward adjustments to earlier estimates make the administration’s current-year and budget-year population numbers reasonable. Caitlin O’Neil of the Legislative Analyst’s Office recommended the committee approve the administration’s current estimates but warned that long-term impacts of Prop 36 remain uncertain and require ongoing monitoring.
Why it matters: CDCR population projections drive staffing, facility, health-care and reentry funding decisions. The department said it will continue to monitor actual admissions and parole outcomes and to refine estimates as more data arrive.
What’s next: CDCR staff said they are tracking Prop 36 implementation and new admissions closely and will answer further questions from the legislature as additional data become available.
